Historical Changes in Annual Peak Flows in Maine and Implications for Flood-Frequency Analyses: Usgs Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5094 - Tapa blanda

Flood-frequency analyses use statistical methods to compute peak streamflows for selected recurrence intervals- the average number of years between peak flows that are equal to or greater than a specified peak flow. Analyses are based on annual peak flows at a stream. It has long been assumed that the annual peak streamflows used in these computations were stationary (non-changing) over very long periods of time, except in river basins subject to direct effects of human activities, such as urbanization and regulation. Because of the potential effects of global warming on peak flows, the assumption of peak-flow stationarity has recently been questioned. Maine has many streamgages with 50 to 105 years of recorded annual peak streamflows. In this study, this long-term record has been tested for historical floodfrequency stationarity, to provide some insight into future flood frequency.

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