The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction - Tapa blanda

"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally engrossing." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift " "Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next." --Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge " "Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes." --Governor Jon Huntsman "Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant." --Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget "Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction serio "Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise... Lively prose -- from energetic to outraged... illustrates his dos and don'ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics... [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I've seen... even the noise makes for a good read." --"New York Times" "Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." --"New York Times Book Review" "Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..." --"Wall Street Journal" "Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone." --"The Boston Globe" "Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions." --"Washington Post" ""The Signal and the Noise" is many things -- an introduction to the Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and character, a commentary on poker's insights into life -- but it's most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed up as data...What. "Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally engrossing." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift " "Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next." --Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge " "Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes." --Governor Jon Huntsman "Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant." --Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget "Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction seriouslya "Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise... Lively prose -- from energetic to outraged... illustrates his dos and don'ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics... [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I've seen... even the noise makes for a good read." --"New York Times ""Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."" --New York Times Book Review" Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name: "Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow: yes; mso-style-parent: ""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom: .0001pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: #0400; mso-fareast-language: #0400; mso-bidi-language: #0400;} "Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..." --"Wall Street Journal" "Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone." --"The Boston Globe " a "Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone." --"The Boston Globe" "Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions." --"Washington Post" "Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone." --"Wired " "Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..." --"Wall Street Journal" "Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally engrossing." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift " "Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next." --Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge " "Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights d "Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..." --"Wall Street Journal" "Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally engrossing." --Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift " "Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next." --Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge " "Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes." --Governor Jon Huntsman "Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant." --Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget "Projection, prediction, as "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally engrossing." --Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next." --Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge "Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes." -- Governor Jon Huntsman "Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant." --Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget "Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction seriously becaus