Forecasting Forest Futures: A Hybrid Modelling Approach to the Assessment of Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems and their Values (The Earthscan Forest Library) - Tapa blanda

"Kimmins and his colleagues provide the definitive text on hybrid modelling approach based on 33 years working experience with the FORECAST family of hybrid models. Each chapter follows a logical progression and is very readable. This is the most significant contribution to forecasting future forests across levels of organization, bravo!" Changhui Peng, Canada Research Chair in Environment Modelling, Institute of Environment Sciences, Department of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal

"Written by top ecologists, this book imparts brilliantly how to integrate scattered pieces of knowledge, develop a model of the whole and use it for sustainable forest ecosystem management. It should be on the shelf of any scientist, student or practician interested in understanding, modelling or managing forest ecosystems." Hans Pretzsch, Professor and Chair of Forest Yield Science, Department for Eco-System and Landscape Management, Center of Life and Food Sciences, Technical University of Munich

"At last, a book well-written and carefully and clearly thought out about how to think about and make useful, scientifically sound, forecasts about forestry. More than that, it will be of immense help in conservation and management of all living resources, because it has the clarity of thought and depth of understanding needed and sorely lacking in the past. A must read for those involved in natural resource management and conservation." Dan Botkin, University of California, Santa Barbara, USA

"Ecosystem modelling has been described as an 'organized way of thinking about the future'. Hamish Kimmins and co-workers do just that, in synthesizing over 30 years of experience with forest ecosystem models for sustainable management. A thought-provoking, informative, and stimulating book." Frits Mohren, Professor of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wageningen, Centre for Ecosystem Studies, Wageningen University and Research Centre

"A grand tour of issues and insights, approaches and applications in forest modeling based on three decades of experience with the FORECAST family of models, and offering a well-reasoned rationale for better models, and better use of models." Jerry Vanclay, Professor for Sustainable Forestry, and Head of the School of Environmental Science and Management, School of Environmental Science and Management, Southern Cross University, Australia

"Providing a comprehensive review of forest models, their history and underlying ideas and concepts, this book is fascinating and thought-provoking reading which should not be missed by anyone engaged in model building and model application to forest management." Annikki Makela, Head of the Department of Forest Ecology, University of Helsinki

"...This book, almost standing alone in its field, is a must-read for everyone." Jolocam Mbabazi, Makerere University, Uganda, International Journal of Environmental Studies

Modelling is an important tool for understanding the complexity of forest ecosystems and the variety of interactions of ecosystem components, processes and values. This book describes the hybrid approach to modelling forest ecosystems and their possible response to natural and management-induced disturbance. The book describes the FORECAST family of ecosystem management models at three different spatial scales (tree, stand and landscape), and compares them with alternative models at these three spatial scales.

The book will help forest managers to understand what to expect from ecosystem-based forest models; serve as a tool for use in teaching about sustainability, scenario analysis and value trade-offs in natural resources management; and assist policy makers, managers and researches working in assessment of sustainable forest management and ecosystem management. Several real-life examples of using the FORECAST family of models in forest management and other applications are presented from countries including Canada, China, Spain and the USA, to illustrate the concepts described in the text. The book also demonstrates how these models can be extended for scenario and value trade-off analysis through visualization and educational or management games.