"Sinopsis" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
"Sobre este título" puede pertenecer a otra edición de este libro.
Gastos de envío:
EUR 28,21
De Estados Unidos de America a España
Descripción Condición: new. Nº de ref. del artículo: FrontCover0691123020
Descripción Hardcover. Condición: new. New. Nº de ref. del artículo: Wizard0691123020
Descripción Hardcover. Condición: new. New Copy. Customer Service Guaranteed. Nº de ref. del artículo: think0691123020
Descripción Condición: new. Nº de ref. del artículo: newMercantile_0691123020
Descripción Hardcover. Condición: new. New. Fast Shipping and good customer service. Nº de ref. del artículo: Holz_New_0691123020
Descripción hardcover. Condición: New. In shrink wrap. Nº de ref. del artículo: 100-33848
Descripción Condición: new. Nº de ref. del artículo: Hafa_fresh_0691123020
Descripción Condición: New. Nº de ref. del artículo: XNN-3-068
Descripción Condición: New. New. In shrink wrap. Looks like an interesting title! 1.35. Nº de ref. del artículo: Q-0691123020
Descripción Hardcover. Condición: New. Brand New!. Nº de ref. del artículo: VIB0691123020