The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and Statistical Inference - Tapa dura

'Ian Hacking's delightful new book is a tour de force of historical scholarship ... [He] takes us on a fascinating tour, not only among the 17th century giants of probability theory, such as Pascal, Huygens, Leibniz, and Bernoulli, but among their predecessors and descendants ... the book can be recommended to anyone interested in history, or philosophy, or gambling, or theology. It contributes to the understanding of all these topics and more.' Theory and Decision

'This is not a technical book on probability, although of course Hacking is at home in this field and writes easily about it when necessary. His book is an important contribution to the history of ideas, cutting new paths, joining some of the more standard and known aspects of the early history of probability theory with lesser-known but equally important works ... not only does Hacking write well, but he has a firm historical sense, and is careful to get the views he discusses correct. His history of the idea of probability is careful, accurate, and absolutely absorbing.' Philosophical Books

Historical records show that there was no real concept of probability in Europe before the mid-seventeenth century although the use of dice and other randomizing objects was commonplace. Ian Hacking here presents a philosophical critique of early ideas about probability, induction and statistical inference and the growth of this new family of ideas in the fifteenth, sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. The contemporary debate centres round such figures as Pascal, Leibniz and Jacques Bernoulli. What brought about the change in ideas? The author invokes in his explanation a wider intellectual framework involving the growth of science, economics and the theology of the period.